NaoX | Post-Quantum Chain (@NaoXprotocol): 20,000 physical qubits is all it will take to break Bitcoin?
Estimated coin impact
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20,000 physical qubits is all it will take to break Bitcoin? According to @IonQ_Inc, yes. On 8 September it published a full technical blueprint for breaking the signature scheme almost the entire crypto industry runs on: 19,397 trapped-ion qubits, 25.7 days, one private key. Its hardware roadmap has a machine of that size in the 2028 timeframe. Here's how far the hardware has come, largest machine by year, one qubit per seat: → 2019: Google's Sycamore, 53 qubits → 2021: IBM Eagle, 127 → 2022: IBM Osprey, 433 → 2023: IBM Condor, 1,121 → 2028: the blueprint, 20,000 In March @Google put the same job at under 500,000. Twenty-five times fewer in six months, and every revision has moved the same way. The people setting the deadlines can see the seats filling. That's what December 2029, 2030 and 2031 are: the last dates to be out of the ground before the stadium fills. Every transaction on @NaoXprotocol has been signed with a post-quantum signature since genesis, verified natively by the protocol, at the parameter set the NSA requires for national security systems. The seats can fill whenever they like.