The Block (@TheBlockCo): THE BLOCK: TD Cowen says its base case is that the Senate's Clarity Act cloture motion will fail today, assigning that outcome a 60% probability. The…
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THE BLOCK: TD Cowen says its base case is that the Senate's Clarity Act cloture motion will fail today, assigning that outcome a 60% probability. The vote is scheduled for around 2:15 p.m. ET. Its other scenarios are cloture passing with Democrats allowed to offer their counterproposal as an amendment at 20%, the bill being set aside until after the election at 15%, and the bill becoming law before the election at 5%. The bank said it is watching the Republican response to the Democrats' counteroffer on Trump family ethics rules and the position of moderate Senate Democrats, particularly Sen. Mark Warner.