Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain): MSTR Stress Test Says No “Death Spiral,” but BTC Per Share Could Collapse
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MSTR Stress Test Says No “Death Spiral,” but BTC Per Share Could Collapse Analyst Adam Livingston said he ran a three-year stress test on MSTR, assuming BTC falls to $26,611 by month six, mNAV drops below 0.50x, capital markets close, and BTC must be sold to service senior debt. The model shows the claim ratio rising from 41.5% to 96.7%, common equity BTC per share falling from 138,161 sats to 7,884 sats, and MSTR’s modeled share price dropping to $1.01. After cash is exhausted in month nine, MSTR would need to sell 115,727 BTC over three years. In the final scenario, MSTR still holds 731,636 BTC, with mNAV at 1.40x. Livingston said the model shows the main risk is compression in common equity BTC per share, rather than “instant bankruptcy” or a “death spiral.”