Aevo (@aevoxyz): May Recap: Stocks Hit Records on the Iran Truce. Crypto Stayed at the Lows.

May Recap: Stocks Hit Records on the Iran Truce. Crypto Stayed at the Lows. May ended with the macro picture turning risk-on and crypto refusing to follow. That's is the signal to carry into June. The war cooled and crypto kept falling The backdrop all spring has been the war. The US-Israel conflict with Iran opened on February 28, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the choke on oil flow fed an inflation problem that sat over every risk asset. May traded inside that shadow: BTC drifted lower through the month, and by Friday the 29th it opened near $73,500, its lowest level of the week, while ETH slipped under $2,000. Then, a 60 day truce extension that would reopen the strait reached Trump's desk, awaiting signature. War fears eased, oil cracked, and global stocks printed records; every condition for a relief rally was in place. Crypto did not show up. BTC and ETH held near their lows while equities ripped, a clean break from the macro they had tracked all month. Spot BTC ETFs bled for a ninth straight session into May 28, over $2 billion out since the middle of the month, while ETH ran open interest to a record even as it broke below $2,000, the signature of heavy shorting. The headlines said risk-on but the order flow said keep selling. What we called, and what's still open That split ran straight through our two volatility calls this month. Mid month we leaned short vol: harvest the vol gap with a front-month strangle, or open a long with PERPS+ Get Paid to Hold and take the premium at entry. It held through the chop. By the third week we flipped to long vol as implied compressed into a heavy market, expressed as a wider strangle or a Limit My Loss floor. That one is still open. The move came partway, but vol never expanded, so the position sits and waits rather than pays. Trading the gap takes one book The story was crypto against equities, and in early May we listed perpetual futures on Circle, Coinbase, TSMC, and Robinhood at up to 20x, cross-margined against crypto in one account. The PERPS+ enhancers that carried this month's actionables sit on that same surface: in a market that grinds, a defined floor or an upfront premium beats paying funding into chop or carrying open downside. We also brought the full platform to mobile on Android and iOS during the month, so the same positions travel with you. What June turns on June turns on two questions, one macro and one native to crypto. The macro one is binary: the truce gets signed and the risk-on extends, or talks break, oil spikes, and the war trade returns. The sharper question is whether crypto re-couples to either outcome at all. It ignored the relief rally, and it may keep trading its own flows, which lean heavy until they don't: relentless ETF outflows, record short interest in ETH, soft June seasonality. Record shorts running into a cleared monthly expiry are also the raw material for a squeeze the moment the bid comes back. And the catalyst that finally moves the market may be regulatory rather than geopolitical, which is a different clock entirely.