Jihoz.ron 🍚 (@Jihoz_Axie): People have been asking for a macro update, so here it is.
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People have been asking for a macro update, so here it is. Last cycle, the bull run was triggered by COVID. That was the “price” we paid: a global crisis severe enough to justify money printing on an epic scale. This time, the emerging "crisis" is trade-related, specifically tariffs. If you're looking for an analog to COVID in terms of palatability, tariffs might be the closest thing we get. And I’ll take this version of crisis over the last one any day. We can go outside. People aren't dying. To get monetary conditions loose again, we needed volatility. Trade policy is delivering that. I also believe the tax cuts coming later this year will shock people, just as the tariffs have, in both scale and boldness. If it were up to me, I’d have done this in reverse. Start with the sugar: • Zero taxes for everyone making under $200K • Zero taxes for energy, AI, and crypto companies That would’ve led people to ask: “This is amazing, but how do we pay for it?” Then serve the medicine Growth: smaller percent of a much bigger pie DOGE: cut non-essential government workers and services Tariffs on countries open to negotiating with us (high game-theory likelihood of reducing tariffs on American goods) Why not lead with the boom like I've proposed above? The risk is timing. If you start high, the economy might be cooling by midterms instead of heating up from a low base.